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Phil Green

Phil Green

author, misLeading Indicators: How to Reliably Measure Your Business

Canada | Professional Services - Business Consulting

The bond trader’s fallacy

Posted about 8 years ago, 0 comments
A few weeks ago one of us was sitting beside a retired bond trader at a luncheon. Both  interlocutors being interested in probability and its applications in business, there ensued a disagreement about whether in a sequence of coin flips the flips were independent. The bond trader argued that anyone who believed they were not independent was guilty of the gambler’s fallacy.
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Lance Armstrong doping case and bond defaults show challenges of probabilistic reasoning

Posted over 8 years ago, 18 comments
In an earlier blog post (here) we wrote that, given the evidence available to us at the time, Lance Armstrong was probably not guilty of doping. The main line of our argument was that hundreds of doping tests from certified laboratories using accepted procedures had not found dope.  We restricted the evidence to this, in the same way a court of law restricts the evidence that can be used to determine the outcome of a trial.
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The Curse of Kelvin

Posted over 8 years ago, 0 comments
People wrongly interpret Kelvin’s comment to mean, “If you cannot measure it, you are ignorant.” But this is not what he meant. Kelvin was talking specifically about the physical sciences. He was making a passing remark, not stating a generable principle of measurement that was applicable to fields outside the physical sciences.
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Investors beware: mining resource estimation methods give inconsistent results

Posted over 8 years ago, 0 comments
After the Bre-X scandal in 1996, when fake measurements of gold wiped out billions of dollars in shareholder value of the Canadian mining company, the mining industry developed new standards for measuring mineral resources. While they are a vast improvement, the words and methods the industry uses to describe resources still leave room for the un-initiated to be misled.
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How many people visit your website?

Posted over 8 years ago, 0 comments
Whether you are writing a blog like this one, or run a major e-commerce website, it’s natural to want to know how many people visit.
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